Did very little trading this week. Sold my swing trades and did a couple daytrades but that was it. Going to start trading again this week and hope earnings open things up a bit. It feels like this support level on the SPX isn't going to hold and were going lower but I'm in no mood to get aggressive and front run the action.
For the week:
Mon +424
Tue +621
Wen (756)
Thu +598
Fri (411)
===========
Total +476
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Friday, July 3, 2009
Week ending 7-3
Didn't travel anywhere this week, but I did take a break from trading and just hung out with the kids. Even after just 4 days away I'm already feeling freshed and looking forward to the second half of the year. I don't expect much to change trading condition wise until after summer, but maybe earnings will provide some nice opportunities. For the rest of July at least I'm going to approach trading on a day-by-day basis. If there's some decent setups then I'll hang around. If not then I'll go play or, most likely, pack some boxes to help get ready for our move at the end of the month.
I'm not sure what life will be like after the move with respect to trading time. I'm really looking forward to my new opportunity though. I can't say enough about living below your means, saving money and investing it wisely. If not for those things I wouldn't be able to take a stab at this opportunity. Basically I'm going into an established 40 year old business run by my father-in-law and hoping to grow it to the next level. While there's some financial security with this move the challenge is really what I'm after. I see a ton of money to be made capitalizing on what he's achieved over 4 decades.
At this point I do intend, with everyone's blessing I might add, to continue trading.
In some respect this month will end a chapter for this blog. When I first started in Mar I was without any job. As of August I will have income though at first it will be considerably less than I'm used to making. But, between my trading and other investments, I have managed to stay even financially so far after paying all living expenses. Our expenses will fall quite a bit after the move and we'll have income coming in so I hope to start growing my assets again in the very near future. I'm really looking forward to that!
This week is just the flucuation of a couple small swing trades I have open. No daytrades for the week.
Mon- +332
Tue- (270)
Wen- +156
Thu- (78)
Fri- mkt closed
===============
Total +140
I'm not sure what life will be like after the move with respect to trading time. I'm really looking forward to my new opportunity though. I can't say enough about living below your means, saving money and investing it wisely. If not for those things I wouldn't be able to take a stab at this opportunity. Basically I'm going into an established 40 year old business run by my father-in-law and hoping to grow it to the next level. While there's some financial security with this move the challenge is really what I'm after. I see a ton of money to be made capitalizing on what he's achieved over 4 decades.
At this point I do intend, with everyone's blessing I might add, to continue trading.
In some respect this month will end a chapter for this blog. When I first started in Mar I was without any job. As of August I will have income though at first it will be considerably less than I'm used to making. But, between my trading and other investments, I have managed to stay even financially so far after paying all living expenses. Our expenses will fall quite a bit after the move and we'll have income coming in so I hope to start growing my assets again in the very near future. I'm really looking forward to that!
This week is just the flucuation of a couple small swing trades I have open. No daytrades for the week.
Mon- +332
Tue- (270)
Wen- +156
Thu- (78)
Fri- mkt closed
===============
Total +140
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Week ending 6-26
I only traded one day this week and that was Monday. This market is just too damn boring right now and sitting there day after day doing nothing seems like a huge waste of time and there's no way I'm putting in 8 hours a day to make a lousy 69 bucks. Plus it's always a good idea to get away from the market every few months just to get recharged. I always seem to do much better after taking a break for some reason.
Anyway, looks like I didn't miss much. We are headed into a seasonally bullish period here so I did start a few swings trades last week. So far they're overall loser's but I'm willing to give them some room over this week and early next week.
Hopefully once earnings start the market will open up some but I'm prepared to sit on my hands and not do anything if that doesn't happen. Better times will come but for right now the best moves I've made all month have been to take vacations.
Here's the week, keep in mind everything after Monday was just the daily fluctuations for my swings. I may or may not trade next week depending on how I feel. Right now I'm inclined to continue in vacation mode.
Mon +69
Tue (640)
Wen (228)
Thu (1138)
Fri +571
===========
total (1366)
Anyway, looks like I didn't miss much. We are headed into a seasonally bullish period here so I did start a few swings trades last week. So far they're overall loser's but I'm willing to give them some room over this week and early next week.
Hopefully once earnings start the market will open up some but I'm prepared to sit on my hands and not do anything if that doesn't happen. Better times will come but for right now the best moves I've made all month have been to take vacations.
Here's the week, keep in mind everything after Monday was just the daily fluctuations for my swings. I may or may not trade next week depending on how I feel. Right now I'm inclined to continue in vacation mode.
Mon +69
Tue (640)
Wen (228)
Thu (1138)
Fri +571
===========
total (1366)
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Week ending 6-19
Didn't trade much this week as I was out of town Sun-Wens, but at least I broke my 3 week losing streak.
All in all, the last 6 weeks have just been a complete waste and I've just been spinning my wheels. In fact, staying even over that time is somewhat of a victory, imo. Clearly I need to adjust my trading to this new market which is just boring beyond words. I think the best strategy going forward is to be extremely selective on set ups and perhaps incorporate a few swings trades even. One of my better trades this week was a swing and I probably sold way too soon I have a feeling. Oh well.
Given that this summer has been nothing less than brutally slow and boring with very few decent set ups on any given day I may well take a trip next week too. It seems to me the best idea of all maybe to just chill out and wait for better days to come. Patience, patience, patience.
For the week:
Mon +50
Tue +427
Wen (474)
Thu (833)
Fri +1133
===========
Total +303
All in all, the last 6 weeks have just been a complete waste and I've just been spinning my wheels. In fact, staying even over that time is somewhat of a victory, imo. Clearly I need to adjust my trading to this new market which is just boring beyond words. I think the best strategy going forward is to be extremely selective on set ups and perhaps incorporate a few swings trades even. One of my better trades this week was a swing and I probably sold way too soon I have a feeling. Oh well.
Given that this summer has been nothing less than brutally slow and boring with very few decent set ups on any given day I may well take a trip next week too. It seems to me the best idea of all maybe to just chill out and wait for better days to come. Patience, patience, patience.
For the week:
Mon +50
Tue +427
Wen (474)
Thu (833)
Fri +1133
===========
Total +303
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Week ending 6-12
I had a lot of stuff going on this week and that really effected my trading. I probably should have just taken off altogether in hindsight. I may not trade a few days next week since I'm likely going out of town to explore some business oportunities and check out houses out of state.
Anyway, for the week I managed only 2 winning days. The number should have been 4 but woulda's, coulda's and shoulda's don't count.
The two biggest mistakes this week, and there were several more, was on Wens I accidently shorted more ATNI that wanted too, 500 vs 100. To make matters worse I didin't realize it for a few minutes because I was distracted over some details with our upcoming move. That resulted in a $900 loss instead of $180 loss. Then on Thurs I shorted 1K ATPG near the close at 8.80 due to them pricing a secondary afterhours. My plan was to cover Fri morning. Well, Fri morning came and the stock opened around 8.70 in pre-market and again I had issue's going on regarding our move and covered at 8.70 for a $100 gain. Of course, the stock immediately fell to 8.00-8.10.
For the week:
Mon (80)
Tue +764
Wen (1176)
Thu +927
Fri (731)
===========
Total (296)
Anyway, for the week I managed only 2 winning days. The number should have been 4 but woulda's, coulda's and shoulda's don't count.
The two biggest mistakes this week, and there were several more, was on Wens I accidently shorted more ATNI that wanted too, 500 vs 100. To make matters worse I didin't realize it for a few minutes because I was distracted over some details with our upcoming move. That resulted in a $900 loss instead of $180 loss. Then on Thurs I shorted 1K ATPG near the close at 8.80 due to them pricing a secondary afterhours. My plan was to cover Fri morning. Well, Fri morning came and the stock opened around 8.70 in pre-market and again I had issue's going on regarding our move and covered at 8.70 for a $100 gain. Of course, the stock immediately fell to 8.00-8.10.
For the week:
Mon (80)
Tue +764
Wen (1176)
Thu +927
Fri (731)
===========
Total (296)
Friday, June 5, 2009
Week ending 6-5
These last 4 weeks have been nothing short of brutal and yet for some reason my confidence isn't being shaken and instead it's actually rising. The reason is because this is about the worst stretch I can ever remember having, but overall I've basically broke even.
This week though was pretty much a dog fight every day. The repeating scenerio was starting out with losing trades right off the bat and then trying to recoup as much of the losses as possible. Thursday was kind of a break through day though. I came into the day down $1500 for the week. AGEN, a piece of trash biotech, was gapping up for the 4th day in a row and screaming to be shorted. In the past I would have either avoided it for fear of getting caught in a short squeeze or more than likely taken a smallish position so as to insure I would turn a bad week into a horrible week. Instead, I decided to not let the 3 previous days influence me (thankfully I had a little time to think) and I shorted it with some size; by my standards at least. I was risking about $1200 so had it not worked it would have been painful but the setup was every bit what I hope for every day. In the end the trade worked and I covered for a $2500 gain. The lesson I guess is you need to know what a good setup is and be prepared to go for it regardless. That and measuring performance on a daily or even weekly level may be too restrictive to actually produce great results. That one trade really saved my week for being much worse though.
It looks as though we're probably going to be moving to another state in a few months. The move will greatly reduce our expenses plus provide me with a little non trading income. So far, in the 3 months I've been unemployed, between my trading and other investments, I've made almost exactly what I need to stay even. Hopefully the new situation will allow me to start getting ahead since I'll need to make about 3K/mo less it appears.
One weird thing....Even though my life hasn't really changed and I have just as much money as I did 3 months ago I still feel unemployed. I constantly feel like I need to get a job and I have to literally sit down and go over the numbers to convince myself that we're not going backwards and heading towards poverty. This has certainly been some experience thats for sure.
For the week:
Mon (978)
Tue (23)
Wen (503)
Thu +1848
Fri (898)
==============
Total (554)
This week though was pretty much a dog fight every day. The repeating scenerio was starting out with losing trades right off the bat and then trying to recoup as much of the losses as possible. Thursday was kind of a break through day though. I came into the day down $1500 for the week. AGEN, a piece of trash biotech, was gapping up for the 4th day in a row and screaming to be shorted. In the past I would have either avoided it for fear of getting caught in a short squeeze or more than likely taken a smallish position so as to insure I would turn a bad week into a horrible week. Instead, I decided to not let the 3 previous days influence me (thankfully I had a little time to think) and I shorted it with some size; by my standards at least. I was risking about $1200 so had it not worked it would have been painful but the setup was every bit what I hope for every day. In the end the trade worked and I covered for a $2500 gain. The lesson I guess is you need to know what a good setup is and be prepared to go for it regardless. That and measuring performance on a daily or even weekly level may be too restrictive to actually produce great results. That one trade really saved my week for being much worse though.
It looks as though we're probably going to be moving to another state in a few months. The move will greatly reduce our expenses plus provide me with a little non trading income. So far, in the 3 months I've been unemployed, between my trading and other investments, I've made almost exactly what I need to stay even. Hopefully the new situation will allow me to start getting ahead since I'll need to make about 3K/mo less it appears.
One weird thing....Even though my life hasn't really changed and I have just as much money as I did 3 months ago I still feel unemployed. I constantly feel like I need to get a job and I have to literally sit down and go over the numbers to convince myself that we're not going backwards and heading towards poverty. This has certainly been some experience thats for sure.
For the week:
Mon (978)
Tue (23)
Wen (503)
Thu +1848
Fri (898)
==============
Total (554)
Friday, May 29, 2009
Week ending 5-29
Thankfully May is over!
For the past 3 weeks trying to trade this market has been next to impossible for me. The first week of May was nice but after that all I did was churn and go nowhere. I guess the only good news is I didn't lose money over that time.
To me all I see right now is one headfake after another with no follow thru at all. When the moves come they seem to come out of nowhere for no reason I can discern. A stock that shows relative strength one minute becomes dead the next. Very frustrating to put it mildly. In hindsight taking quick gains was the was to trade, but thats not my style at all. All in all though, considering how poorly I traded it could have been a lot worse.
For the week:
Mon holiday
Tue +701
Wen (475)
Thu (475)
Fri (611)
============
total (860)
Month of May: +2933
For the past 3 weeks trying to trade this market has been next to impossible for me. The first week of May was nice but after that all I did was churn and go nowhere. I guess the only good news is I didn't lose money over that time.
To me all I see right now is one headfake after another with no follow thru at all. When the moves come they seem to come out of nowhere for no reason I can discern. A stock that shows relative strength one minute becomes dead the next. Very frustrating to put it mildly. In hindsight taking quick gains was the was to trade, but thats not my style at all. All in all though, considering how poorly I traded it could have been a lot worse.
For the week:
Mon holiday
Tue +701
Wen (475)
Thu (475)
Fri (611)
============
total (860)
Month of May: +2933
Friday, May 22, 2009
Week ending 5-22
Slow week. I've found the market very difficult to trade the last two weeks so I've spent a lot of time just watching and doing nothing. The lack of movement after the first few minutes is typical of summer in general so I expect this to continue for a few months. Sell in May and go away may well be in force this year. Time will tell.
As for the week, it was pretty uneventful. Small winners and small loser's. Thankfully more winners than loser's. Risk control is crucial right now due to the lack of really good set ups. You don't dare take a big loss because you might not get an opportunity to make it back. I can only hope things open up a bit.
For the week:
Mon- (620)
Tues- +788
Wens- (423)
Thurs- +823
Fri- +422
==============
Total +990
As for the week, it was pretty uneventful. Small winners and small loser's. Thankfully more winners than loser's. Risk control is crucial right now due to the lack of really good set ups. You don't dare take a big loss because you might not get an opportunity to make it back. I can only hope things open up a bit.
For the week:
Mon- (620)
Tues- +788
Wens- (423)
Thurs- +823
Fri- +422
==============
Total +990
Friday, May 15, 2009
Week ending 5-15
Egads. Might as well have just taken the week off.
Monday I woke up feeling sick but decided I was well enough to trade. Wrong! Placed my first trade and within seconds realized I was a lot sicker than I thought. Closed it out right away and spent the rest of the day in bed.
Tuesday I wasn't feeling much better but I traded anyhow. Just a dog fight all day. I don't remember all that happened other than flipping back and forth between being up and down on the day.
Wenseday I decided to take it easy and trade real small since I really hadn't got into any sort of rhythm for the week. Of course every trade was a winner but due to the small position sizes not a big day.
Thursday was nuts. Started out shorting FIG. Big mistake! Lets just say I was the bug and FIG was the winshield. Of course, I had a little size of this trade (5K). Figures. Anyway there's nothing like being down 2 grand before 10am. lol! Spent the rest of the day fighting back and somehow managed to get back into the green at about 3:45. Believe me, felt like a great day at that point.
Friday I made 2 trades and lost both. My daugther had a big competition for the regional Battle of the Books finals so I had to leave at 10:30.
I tend to trade much better towards the end of the week. In fact, I've noticed that I make most all my money Wens-Fri and oftentimes lose on Mon. Seems that getting into the flow of the market each week is extremely important for me. After being sick Monday and Tuesday I just never felt "it" this week. And even though I rarely trade past noon on Fri I let having to leave early effect me as well. I should have just taken today off completely. Oh well.
On a lighther note, I can't believe I could trade as many shares as I did this week and end up +/- $100 overall. I don't think I could do that again if I tried. Looking back I can't find another week in the last 17 months where I made or lost less than $500.
Mon- +29
Tues- (292)
Wens- +717
Thurs- +27
Fri- (601)
===========
Total (120)
Monday I woke up feeling sick but decided I was well enough to trade. Wrong! Placed my first trade and within seconds realized I was a lot sicker than I thought. Closed it out right away and spent the rest of the day in bed.
Tuesday I wasn't feeling much better but I traded anyhow. Just a dog fight all day. I don't remember all that happened other than flipping back and forth between being up and down on the day.
Wenseday I decided to take it easy and trade real small since I really hadn't got into any sort of rhythm for the week. Of course every trade was a winner but due to the small position sizes not a big day.
Thursday was nuts. Started out shorting FIG. Big mistake! Lets just say I was the bug and FIG was the winshield. Of course, I had a little size of this trade (5K). Figures. Anyway there's nothing like being down 2 grand before 10am. lol! Spent the rest of the day fighting back and somehow managed to get back into the green at about 3:45. Believe me, felt like a great day at that point.
Friday I made 2 trades and lost both. My daugther had a big competition for the regional Battle of the Books finals so I had to leave at 10:30.
I tend to trade much better towards the end of the week. In fact, I've noticed that I make most all my money Wens-Fri and oftentimes lose on Mon. Seems that getting into the flow of the market each week is extremely important for me. After being sick Monday and Tuesday I just never felt "it" this week. And even though I rarely trade past noon on Fri I let having to leave early effect me as well. I should have just taken today off completely. Oh well.
On a lighther note, I can't believe I could trade as many shares as I did this week and end up +/- $100 overall. I don't think I could do that again if I tried. Looking back I can't find another week in the last 17 months where I made or lost less than $500.
Mon- +29
Tues- (292)
Wens- +717
Thurs- +27
Fri- (601)
===========
Total (120)
Friday, May 8, 2009
Week ending 5-8
Another week of fairly decent decision making and even though the profits weren't huge the confidence boost of the last 2 weeks is making me feel pretty good about things.
Overall I did very little trading. I make most of my money by 10:30 est and between 2pm-3pm est andI pretty much stuck to trading in those time frames. My main focus was on trading really good setups and passing on anything marginal. Did a pretty decent job on that front I believe.
For the first week in a while relative strength/weakness trades worked well. Thats huge because it's my bread and butter. DRYS was a perfect example of that today. Stock was weak on news and couldn't rally 10 cents with market pops. Had it not been for being Friday and me not wanting to end the week with stress I would have hit it with some size.
For the week:
Mon- (142)
Tues- +708
Wens- +875
Thus- +533
Fri- +535
============
Total- +2,509
Overall I did very little trading. I make most of my money by 10:30 est and between 2pm-3pm est andI pretty much stuck to trading in those time frames. My main focus was on trading really good setups and passing on anything marginal. Did a pretty decent job on that front I believe.
For the first week in a while relative strength/weakness trades worked well. Thats huge because it's my bread and butter. DRYS was a perfect example of that today. Stock was weak on news and couldn't rally 10 cents with market pops. Had it not been for being Friday and me not wanting to end the week with stress I would have hit it with some size.
For the week:
Mon- (142)
Tues- +708
Wens- +875
Thus- +533
Fri- +535
============
Total- +2,509
Friday, May 1, 2009
Week ending 5-1
Just to keep the weekly stats going I'm updating yesterdays numbers to reflect todays trading.
Pretty quit as is normal for me of Friday's. Keep it small. Got lucky on HGSI short. Could have done really well on MA but I had small shares and bailed way too soon. Did have a great long entry though at 165 for a long scalp. Made 2 of the 8 points it bounced.LOL! Had a couple small loser's as well. Nothing special.
Mon- +343
Tues- +327
Wens- (436)
Thurs- +1769
Fri- +416
==============
Total- +2419
Pretty quit as is normal for me of Friday's. Keep it small. Got lucky on HGSI short. Could have done really well on MA but I had small shares and bailed way too soon. Did have a great long entry though at 165 for a long scalp. Made 2 of the 8 points it bounced.LOL! Had a couple small loser's as well. Nothing special.
Mon- +343
Tues- +327
Wens- (436)
Thurs- +1769
Fri- +416
==============
Total- +2419
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Month of April recap
Not where I want to be but better than losing plus I think I learned a lot.
There is so much difference between trading for a living verus trading for extra income it's not even funny. It's literally two different games and what I've learned more than anything else is that you can trade on the side forever but in no way, shape or form will that prepare you for "real" trading.
Hopefully I'm moving in the right direction though. Last week was a big test and even though it hurt like hell I think I'm better for it. So far this week I've been quite pleased with my trading. Probably the best week I've had yet in so far as making good solid decisions day in and day out.
Mon- +343
Tues- +327
Wens- (436)
Thurs- +1769
=============
total- +2003
For the month of Apr.
week 1 (4/1-4/3) +2014
week 2 (4/6-4/10) +2080
week 3 (4/13-4/17) +2015
week 4 (4/20-4/24) (4459)
week 5 (4/27-4/30) +2003
======================
Total +3653
There is so much difference between trading for a living verus trading for extra income it's not even funny. It's literally two different games and what I've learned more than anything else is that you can trade on the side forever but in no way, shape or form will that prepare you for "real" trading.
Hopefully I'm moving in the right direction though. Last week was a big test and even though it hurt like hell I think I'm better for it. So far this week I've been quite pleased with my trading. Probably the best week I've had yet in so far as making good solid decisions day in and day out.
Mon- +343
Tues- +327
Wens- (436)
Thurs- +1769
=============
total- +2003
For the month of Apr.
week 1 (4/1-4/3) +2014
week 2 (4/6-4/10) +2080
week 3 (4/13-4/17) +2015
week 4 (4/20-4/24) (4459)
week 5 (4/27-4/30) +2003
======================
Total +3653
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Week ending 4-24
Ouch!
What a week. One of the worst I've had in quite some time. The difference is looking back I'm not really sure what I would have done differently. The biggest mistake I made I believe was not capitalizing more earlier in the month. Had I done that this week wouldn't have been so bad.
For whatever reason the market changed it's behavior this week. Setups that were working over and over just all of a sudden stopped. Thursday was the real killer and as I said I'm not sure I would do anything different even in hindsight. I guess it just works out that way sometimes. Oh well, hopefully I'll regain my mojo.
Mon- (2225)
Tues- +2037
Wens- +1445
Thurs- (4061)
Fri- (1655)
===========
total- (4459)
Month so far: +1650
What a week. One of the worst I've had in quite some time. The difference is looking back I'm not really sure what I would have done differently. The biggest mistake I made I believe was not capitalizing more earlier in the month. Had I done that this week wouldn't have been so bad.
For whatever reason the market changed it's behavior this week. Setups that were working over and over just all of a sudden stopped. Thursday was the real killer and as I said I'm not sure I would do anything different even in hindsight. I guess it just works out that way sometimes. Oh well, hopefully I'll regain my mojo.
Mon- (2225)
Tues- +2037
Wens- +1445
Thurs- (4061)
Fri- (1655)
===========
total- (4459)
Month so far: +1650
Friday, April 17, 2009
Week ending 4-17
Pretty uneventful week.
Even though I keep saying I have to quit grinding it out, I keep grinding it out. Had a chance on Thursday with a JPM short to really open the week up. I could have covered for $1500 gain but instead chose to go for a hero or zero trade and ended up stopping for a small gain. No regrets about that one however. The setup was there and the stock looked dead.
Mon (431)
Tues +697
Wens +762
Thurs +544
Fri +443
=============
Week +2,015
Month so far: +6,110
Even though I keep saying I have to quit grinding it out, I keep grinding it out. Had a chance on Thursday with a JPM short to really open the week up. I could have covered for $1500 gain but instead chose to go for a hero or zero trade and ended up stopping for a small gain. No regrets about that one however. The setup was there and the stock looked dead.
Mon (431)
Tues +697
Wens +762
Thurs +544
Fri +443
=============
Week +2,015
Month so far: +6,110
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Fear!
A friend once told me that the word fear is an acronym that stands for False Evidence Appearing Real. When I managed 100 sales people I would give these wonderful motivational meetings about conquering fear. How life is too short. You have to go for what is important to you and if you fail so be it. So long as you tried your best and did everything in your power you can sleep well at night.
But don't fail because of fear. Don't put yourself in a position where you end up having to look back and say, "if only I wouldn't have been to0 afraid". And you know what? Whatever it is someone is afraid of, whatever it is that's holding them back from what they want or need to do is almost always an unjustified emotion.
In fact, oftentimes when we are afraid we can't pinpoint exactly what we're afraid of. That's because the fear we feel is in our subconsciousness not our intellect. Most times when we stop and rationally think about things we can't even find a reason to be in fear. And that's what makes fear so difficult to overcome. Often we don't even realize when we're making decisions based on that subconscious fear.
So whats this got to do with trading. For me right now just about everything. I seem to have a fear of losing money. Not an outright fear, but a subconscious fear that rears it's head at the moment of executing a trade. I used to justify my actions from being told by other successful trader's that rule number 1 is don't lose money. Plus I had a big income and didn't need the money anyway. Which, actually is a better reason to trade aggressively, isn't it? Hmmm.
I've also tried to pass this fear off as a "comfort zone" issue that I've established over the years. There maybe some truth to that, but the truth is at very least I'm afraid of breaking out of that comfort zone. And that comfort zone is one in which I never lose much money.
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not talking about recklessly throwing money around when I say trade more aggressively. In the last 2.5 years my max draw down has been about 7% and that was only once. I've only had 4 losing months during that time. And I've always been profitable.
But I'm making virtually the same size trades a lot of times as when my account was 1/3 the size it is now. In the beginning that made sense. I didn't have a clue what I was doing. I was just following other trader's calls. But that's not the case today. Plus, I have a track record of consistently winning, Not every trade, not every day or even every week, but overall I have always come out on top.
So what's my problem? Best I can figure is it works like this. I start the day off not wanting to get in a hole. So my first trade is usually smallish in size. Not because it should be necessarily but because I'm playing defense against a bad day. Then, if the trade works now I'm playing defense because I don't want to lose those profits. And therein lies the problem. In order to really make money trading you've got to be looking at the big picture. It's not whether you have a good or bad day, or week, or even month. You're going to have bad periods. In the end it's how did you do overall?
I'm hoping that writing this will be a form of facing this demon head-on. It's weird, I always thought that picking the trades was the key to making money. There's no doubt that's a big part of being successful but there are a lot of emotional issues that come into play as well. If I can overcome those there is no doubt in my mind I can make more money trading than I can make doing anything else.
But don't fail because of fear. Don't put yourself in a position where you end up having to look back and say, "if only I wouldn't have been to0 afraid". And you know what? Whatever it is someone is afraid of, whatever it is that's holding them back from what they want or need to do is almost always an unjustified emotion.
In fact, oftentimes when we are afraid we can't pinpoint exactly what we're afraid of. That's because the fear we feel is in our subconsciousness not our intellect. Most times when we stop and rationally think about things we can't even find a reason to be in fear. And that's what makes fear so difficult to overcome. Often we don't even realize when we're making decisions based on that subconscious fear.
So whats this got to do with trading. For me right now just about everything. I seem to have a fear of losing money. Not an outright fear, but a subconscious fear that rears it's head at the moment of executing a trade. I used to justify my actions from being told by other successful trader's that rule number 1 is don't lose money. Plus I had a big income and didn't need the money anyway. Which, actually is a better reason to trade aggressively, isn't it? Hmmm.
I've also tried to pass this fear off as a "comfort zone" issue that I've established over the years. There maybe some truth to that, but the truth is at very least I'm afraid of breaking out of that comfort zone. And that comfort zone is one in which I never lose much money.
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not talking about recklessly throwing money around when I say trade more aggressively. In the last 2.5 years my max draw down has been about 7% and that was only once. I've only had 4 losing months during that time. And I've always been profitable.
But I'm making virtually the same size trades a lot of times as when my account was 1/3 the size it is now. In the beginning that made sense. I didn't have a clue what I was doing. I was just following other trader's calls. But that's not the case today. Plus, I have a track record of consistently winning, Not every trade, not every day or even every week, but overall I have always come out on top.
So what's my problem? Best I can figure is it works like this. I start the day off not wanting to get in a hole. So my first trade is usually smallish in size. Not because it should be necessarily but because I'm playing defense against a bad day. Then, if the trade works now I'm playing defense because I don't want to lose those profits. And therein lies the problem. In order to really make money trading you've got to be looking at the big picture. It's not whether you have a good or bad day, or week, or even month. You're going to have bad periods. In the end it's how did you do overall?
I'm hoping that writing this will be a form of facing this demon head-on. It's weird, I always thought that picking the trades was the key to making money. There's no doubt that's a big part of being successful but there are a lot of emotional issues that come into play as well. If I can overcome those there is no doubt in my mind I can make more money trading than I can make doing anything else.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Trading Thoughts
Coming into last week short term overbought readings were approaching fairly extreme levels and the market pulled back a bit early in the week. The rally resumed on Wednesday and Thursday was a climax day after WFC guided earnings substantially higher.
On the week the Dow gained +65 points and the Naz gained +30. The market has now posted gains in 5 consecutive weeks with pretty impressive cumulative gains since the lows on March 6. Since the low on March 6 the Dow has now rallied +25%, the Naz +30.6% and the SP500 +28.5%. Yet amazingly, year to date the Dow is still -7.9% and the SP500 is -5.2%, although the outperforming Naz is now green in 2009 with gains of +4.8%.
WFC was a huge catalyst behind Thursday’s broad surge higher as financials led the charge. WFC guidance was very impressive and very surprising, but several critical pieces of information were missing, including asset quality and security exposure. WFC will report earnings on April 22 and it will be very interesting to see what the full picture looks like. This upcoming week other key financials will report earnings (GS, JPM and C) and they better confirm WFC enthusiasm or this recent rally could run into a brick wall very quickly.
Everybody is slowly forgetting about the bear market and this could lead to a very surprising reversal mid May. The five week rally off the bottom has been fast and furious and is getting fairly extended now. Many have missed the rally completely and now feel like a deer in headlights. Chasing the long side now after the market has bounced so much seems very scary, while the short side isn’t any easier and has been getting squeezed hard the past 5 weeks.
Have we truly seen the bottom or has this been just a huge bear market head fake rally? That’s the dilemma right now. There has been a very noticeable change in market behavior over the past 5 weeks. During the prior year every rally, every bounce was an opportunity to sell or short stocks. The past month though, every dip and every pullback has brought in buyers. This is a major change in trader psyche and certainly requires a trading adjustment. I guess at the moment its ok to give the market the benefit of the doubt, but after huge gains the past 5 weeks it sure is hard to be bullish now, at least for me.
I really expected to see many warnings recently, but warnings season has surprisingly been a non-event. Perhaps expectations are so low that further revisions are not necessary or perhaps Armageddon was greatly overstated. Earnings season kicks off this upcoming week and will be an eye opener. With so much near term uncertainty, this is not the type of environment where you want to build and hold positions (long or short) and roll the dice on immediate market direction.
Here are the headliners scheduled to report earnings this upcoming week, but it’s only a prelude to an avalanche of earnings the following week: GS, JNJ, INC, NOK, JPM, GOOG, ISRG, SNDK, C, and GE The trend of late has brought in buyers on every pullback and this might continue throughout earnings season most of April and early May. Poor earnings and lower guidance are well expected and very much priced in, so perhaps the market holds up for now and maybe even builds on recent gains in coming weeks. I continue to believe the next turn time frame for the market will occur mid May. Sell in May and go Away has been a huge trend for decades and I feel will once again be revisited in 2009.
On the week the Dow gained +65 points and the Naz gained +30. The market has now posted gains in 5 consecutive weeks with pretty impressive cumulative gains since the lows on March 6. Since the low on March 6 the Dow has now rallied +25%, the Naz +30.6% and the SP500 +28.5%. Yet amazingly, year to date the Dow is still -7.9% and the SP500 is -5.2%, although the outperforming Naz is now green in 2009 with gains of +4.8%.
WFC was a huge catalyst behind Thursday’s broad surge higher as financials led the charge. WFC guidance was very impressive and very surprising, but several critical pieces of information were missing, including asset quality and security exposure. WFC will report earnings on April 22 and it will be very interesting to see what the full picture looks like. This upcoming week other key financials will report earnings (GS, JPM and C) and they better confirm WFC enthusiasm or this recent rally could run into a brick wall very quickly.
Everybody is slowly forgetting about the bear market and this could lead to a very surprising reversal mid May. The five week rally off the bottom has been fast and furious and is getting fairly extended now. Many have missed the rally completely and now feel like a deer in headlights. Chasing the long side now after the market has bounced so much seems very scary, while the short side isn’t any easier and has been getting squeezed hard the past 5 weeks.
Have we truly seen the bottom or has this been just a huge bear market head fake rally? That’s the dilemma right now. There has been a very noticeable change in market behavior over the past 5 weeks. During the prior year every rally, every bounce was an opportunity to sell or short stocks. The past month though, every dip and every pullback has brought in buyers. This is a major change in trader psyche and certainly requires a trading adjustment. I guess at the moment its ok to give the market the benefit of the doubt, but after huge gains the past 5 weeks it sure is hard to be bullish now, at least for me.
I really expected to see many warnings recently, but warnings season has surprisingly been a non-event. Perhaps expectations are so low that further revisions are not necessary or perhaps Armageddon was greatly overstated. Earnings season kicks off this upcoming week and will be an eye opener. With so much near term uncertainty, this is not the type of environment where you want to build and hold positions (long or short) and roll the dice on immediate market direction.
Here are the headliners scheduled to report earnings this upcoming week, but it’s only a prelude to an avalanche of earnings the following week: GS, JNJ, INC, NOK, JPM, GOOG, ISRG, SNDK, C, and GE The trend of late has brought in buyers on every pullback and this might continue throughout earnings season most of April and early May. Poor earnings and lower guidance are well expected and very much priced in, so perhaps the market holds up for now and maybe even builds on recent gains in coming weeks. I continue to believe the next turn time frame for the market will occur mid May. Sell in May and go Away has been a huge trend for decades and I feel will once again be revisited in 2009.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Back in the Black
Profitable albeit stessfull week.
I did increase my size some this week although it's not really reflected by my results. Just getting used to the bigger flucuations though was a move in the right direction I think. I really need to seperate myself from the money but that's so much easier said than done.
I do have the benefit of belonging to a chatroom that is home to a small group of very experienced and successful traders. They have been extremely helpful and supportive and that sure makes this a lot easier.
I must say though it's kind of demoralizing at times when your friends are making 15K a day and your making $500. As I said last week, grinding it out isn't a good plan. You need to make hay when things are going your way so that when the inevitable cold streak comes you can still pay the bills. A really nice run would be great, but for now I have to take it one day at a time and trade whats there.
Mon (665)
Tues (490)
Wens +2,873
Thur +362
Fri mkt closed
Week +2,080
I did increase my size some this week although it's not really reflected by my results. Just getting used to the bigger flucuations though was a move in the right direction I think. I really need to seperate myself from the money but that's so much easier said than done.
I do have the benefit of belonging to a chatroom that is home to a small group of very experienced and successful traders. They have been extremely helpful and supportive and that sure makes this a lot easier.
I must say though it's kind of demoralizing at times when your friends are making 15K a day and your making $500. As I said last week, grinding it out isn't a good plan. You need to make hay when things are going your way so that when the inevitable cold streak comes you can still pay the bills. A really nice run would be great, but for now I have to take it one day at a time and trade whats there.
Mon (665)
Tues (490)
Wens +2,873
Thur +362
Fri mkt closed
Week +2,080
Friday, April 3, 2009
Averting disaster
Whew!!!...
Week started out with a loss on Monday followed by an even bigger loss on Tuesday. On Wenseday I downsized the number of shares I traded by quite a bit and managed a small gain. Thursday was a comeback day and Friday did very little trading.
All in all it could have been much worse and I'm not sure if this week was a loss due to actually losing money or a gain due to working through Monday and Tuesdays losses and recouping most of them.
One thing I have realized is that grinding it out isn't the way to make money. The idea of making a little money everyday is appealing, but in truth it doesn't work. I need to take on more size when the setups are there and increase my tolerance for losses. Until now my goal has been to make 1000-1500/day and cap my losses at 1000-1500 max. It's going to take some real soul searching and guts but I need to bump those numbers up.
Part of my problem is comfort zone. I'm used to taking losses on a day of 1000-1500. I'm used to trading certain sized positions and risking a certain amount per trade. That was fine when I was trading as a hobby. Now that this is my job I need break out of that long established comfort zone and start manning up.
Results for the week:
Mon (1108)
Tues (1630)
Wens +276
Thurs +1490
Fri +248
===========
Total (724)
Week started out with a loss on Monday followed by an even bigger loss on Tuesday. On Wenseday I downsized the number of shares I traded by quite a bit and managed a small gain. Thursday was a comeback day and Friday did very little trading.
All in all it could have been much worse and I'm not sure if this week was a loss due to actually losing money or a gain due to working through Monday and Tuesdays losses and recouping most of them.
One thing I have realized is that grinding it out isn't the way to make money. The idea of making a little money everyday is appealing, but in truth it doesn't work. I need to take on more size when the setups are there and increase my tolerance for losses. Until now my goal has been to make 1000-1500/day and cap my losses at 1000-1500 max. It's going to take some real soul searching and guts but I need to bump those numbers up.
Part of my problem is comfort zone. I'm used to taking losses on a day of 1000-1500. I'm used to trading certain sized positions and risking a certain amount per trade. That was fine when I was trading as a hobby. Now that this is my job I need break out of that long established comfort zone and start manning up.
Results for the week:
Mon (1108)
Tues (1630)
Wens +276
Thurs +1490
Fri +248
===========
Total (724)
Monday, March 30, 2009
Final results for March 2009 by week
3/6: +994.71
3/13: +2,198.33
3/20: +960.88
Total : +5,112.63
3/13: +2,198.33
3/20: +960.88
3/27: +958.71
Total : +5,112.63
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Whats this blog about?
Truthfully, I'm not sure what I hope to achieve through blogging. Maybe I'll meet similar people? Maybe I get a job offer? Who knows? What I do know is after being out of work for 4 weeks I am going out of my mind. Everyone I know thinks I'm in great position. I guess time will tell.
So here's the deal. I'm used to making ~150K but fortunately I'm a saver not a spender so I can get by on less. I have some savings that amount to about 4 years of living expenses so I'm not destitute just yet. That saving is split up between a bank account, a brokerage account that I use for daytrading and a hedgefund that invested in late last year.
Now while I'm no novice when it comes to trading I've never had to rely on the income. That's a good thing because I never made enough trading to live anyway. But now I have no choice but to step it up and stop trading like a little old lady. I know most will say what I'm attempting is foolish. They may be right.
As this blog moves on I will post my results and feelings on at least a weekly basis if not more.
Thus far from 3/2 - 3/25 I am up +5,923.00 for the month which is about exactly what I need to make ends meet.
Hopefully this blog will turn into a success story and not a horror show. Wish me luck!
TraderX
So here's the deal. I'm used to making ~150K but fortunately I'm a saver not a spender so I can get by on less. I have some savings that amount to about 4 years of living expenses so I'm not destitute just yet. That saving is split up between a bank account, a brokerage account that I use for daytrading and a hedgefund that invested in late last year.
Now while I'm no novice when it comes to trading I've never had to rely on the income. That's a good thing because I never made enough trading to live anyway. But now I have no choice but to step it up and stop trading like a little old lady. I know most will say what I'm attempting is foolish. They may be right.
As this blog moves on I will post my results and feelings on at least a weekly basis if not more.
Thus far from 3/2 - 3/25 I am up +5,923.00 for the month which is about exactly what I need to make ends meet.
Hopefully this blog will turn into a success story and not a horror show. Wish me luck!
TraderX
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
